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Thursday, February 27, 2014

Faber recommends Wilmar International stock




Prices for commodities, such as soybeans, corn, and wheat, are now at reasonable levels. 

I am recommending Wilmar International [WIL.Singapore], an agribusiness company. It specializes in palm-oil products and sugar. The founder, Robert Kuok, and his family are the controlling shareholders. It is a big family in the


Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Faber : Treasury Yields to Rise as Investors Seek Safe Haven




Since the Fed started tapering its monthly asset purchases by $10 billion a month in December and another $10 billion in January, stock markets have taken a tumble. Emerging markets fell first; this week the U.S. and Europe have also seen significant weakness.

On Monday, U.S. stocks saw their worst start to February since 1933 after a manufacturing report heightened concern about the strength of the U.S. economy.Overall factory activity hit an eight-month low in January as new order growth plunged by the most in 33 years.

Illustrating the heightened state of concern among investors, the CBOE Volatility Index rose above 20 on Monday for the first time in four months, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit a three-month low. Faber said he had been advising his readers to buy 10-year U.S. Treasurys over the last few months. He expects yields to rise as investors would seek a safe haven.

"For the next three to six months probably they are a better place to be than equities," he warned. "I don't like [10-year Treasurys] for the long-term because the maximum you can earn is something like 2.65 percent per annum for the next 10 years, but Treasurys are expected to rally because of economic weakness and a stock market decline. In the last few years at least there was a flight into quality – that is, a flight into Treasurys."
- in  CNBC




Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Marc Faber on US Government


If the U.S. Government was a company, the deficit would be $5 trillion because they would have to account by general accepted accounting principles.

But actually they encourage government spending, reckless government spending, because the government can issue Treasury bills at extremely low interest rates



Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

US Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit




I bought Treasury bonds and I have a lot of cash. It is mostly in U.S. dollars. I also have Singapore dollars, and Malaysian ringgit.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Huge growth in Asian Tourism

Tourism in Asia will grow, unless there is a war. I have seen Macau go from a sleepy village to a gambling center seven times the size of Las Vegas. This year, 30 million Chinese will travel to Macau. It also appeals to Thais, Indonesians, and others in the region. Chinese tourism in Thailand grew by 90% last year.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Central banks in emerging markets made a mistake

Basically central bankers are Keynesian, they believe in intervention but what they never do is cool down the system. What the central banks in emerging economies missed is that they should have slowed down their economies and credit growth two years ago and taken some pain.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Monday, February 24, 2014

Marc Faber likes Vietnam, Iraq..US stocks not a good buy at the moment



Marc Faber talks on CNBC where he re-iterates his views stating that Emerging economies stock markets are a decent buy compared to US Stocks. However emerging economy stocks still have some downside risks. Dr Faber does like Vietnam and Iraq as they appear to be reasonably priced.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Fed should stop writing papers that nobody reads

All these professors and academics at the Fed, write papers that nobody reads, and nobody is interested in. Why would they[Fed] once not write about, how to structure an economic system that lifts the standard of living of most people.


 Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

US stocks are nearing a top

"I think you need to be fearful lets say, if you take the view of the next 5 year to 10 years, you take the valuations of the US equities and emerging economies, then I think, I could make the case that over the next 5 to 10 years, that I could make more money buying emerging economies now than in the US. Having said that I think its too early to make a major commitment to the emerging stock markets. In general I think its too early to do it, they can still decline." - Via CNBC

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Something More Serious is in the Offing



"I'd like to reserve the opinion about this until we see the nature of the rebound," he said. "If the rebound fails around 1,820 [on the S&P 500] and then the market starts to drift again on the downside, and we see important shares for the market such as General Motors, GE, Coke... failing to make new highs, then I think we can assume that something more serious is in the offing."


Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Central bankers are completely insane


Central bankers are completely insane. My sense is that central banks are unlikely to tighten because they’re in such deep shit already and they will continue to print. 

What the central banks in emerging economies missed is that they should have slowed down their economies and credit growth two years ago and taken some pain. Basically central bankers are Keynesian, they believe in intervention but what they never do is cool down the system.


 Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

QE Has Not Lifted the Standard of Living


The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program has lifted asset prices substantially. "I think stocks are, by and large, fully priced," Faber said. "I think the experience with quantitative easing is a complete failure. It has lifted asset prices and created asset inflation, but it hasn't lifted the standard of living of most people in the U.S. nor worldwide."
Faber has long been bearish on the market—a call that obviously has not played out well over the past five years. But even though stocks have started 2014 with some days of sharp losses, he said the correction he has been forecasting may not have begun just yet.


 Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Friday, February 14, 2014

Marc Faber would rather own gold, silver, platinum to bitcoin


I prefer physical gold, silver, platinum to Bitcoin. Bitcoin can have a lot of competition. Gold, silver, platinum dont have any competition. How do you value a bitcoin ?
I can value Gold to some extent to say Gold to the quantity of money floating around the world, the wealth increase, to the credit increase, to the production costs, so I have any idea of where Gold should be. I'm not sure because prices overshoot.


Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Be afraid of big corporations and government


The big corporations and specially money printers are the most powerful people in the world. They control the governments.
The US treasury, Federal reserve and the government is one and the same. The Fed finances the treasury, so they can goto war. Then they finance transfer payments essentially to buy votes so they can get elected.


Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Thursday, February 13, 2014

IMF new tax proposal in Europe

IMF has come up with a paper in Europe that essentially the well to do people should pay a one time wealth tax of 10 percent. But I can assure you one time wealth tax will become a every year tax.



Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Marc Faber would rather own gold, silver, platinum to bitcoin


I prefer physical gold, silver, platinum to Bitcoin. Bitcoin can have a lot of competition. Gold, silver, platinum dont have any competition. How do you value a bitcoin ? 

I can value Gold to some extent to say Gold to the quantity of money floating around the world, the wealth increase, to the credit increase, to the production costs, so I have any idea of where Gold should be. I'm not sure because prices overshoot.


Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

The Market is Overdue for a 20% to 30% Correction


Marc Faber predicts that stocks will drop by 20 percent to 30 percent in the near future. But he personally hopes that they will fall even further.
"I think the market is way overdue for a 20 to 30 percent correction," said Faber, the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. But that is "nothing that worries me," he said. "In fact, I'm hoping for the market to drop 40 percent so stocks will again become—from a value point of view—attractive."
Faber added with a chuckle: "But that is not the view of someone who is fully invested—obviously not."


Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Paper Assets are doomed buy Gold


Paper Assets are doomed buy Gold Those who own paper assets are doomed. I recommend the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF [GDXJ], although I don't own it. I own physical gold because the old system will implode.



Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

The Market is Overdue for a 20 to 20 percent Correction




Marc Faber predicts that stocks will drop by 20 percent to 30 percent in the near future. But he personally hopes that they will fall even further.

"I think the market is way overdue for a 20 to 30 percent correction," said Faber, the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. But that is "nothing that worries me," he said. "In fact, I'm hoping for the market to drop 40 percent so stocks will again become—from a value point of view—attractive."

Faber added with a chuckle: "But that is not the view of someone who is fully invested—obviously not."



Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Marc Faber Bullish on Vietnam


I like Vietnam. The economy has had its troubles, and the market has seen a big decline. I want you to visualize Vietnam. 

South of Da Nang is China Beach, and north are other beaches. This was the largest American base during the Vietnam War. Coming back to tourism, there is a new airport in Da Nang with international flights. The place will be like Benidorm, the Spanish resort area, in a few years. Benidorm used to be nice, and then it became overbuilt and cheap tourism arrived. Pockets of Asia, including Indochina and India and Bangladesh, are underdeveloped. Eventually there will be road and rail links, and the area will become a giant free-trade zone. There are many investment opportunities here.

I am not keen to own Singapore Airlines or Cathay Pacific Airways because they have a lot of competition from budget airlines. But I like some airline-servicing companies based in Singapore, including SATS [SATS.Singapore], in the catering business, and SIA Engineering [SIE.Singapore], which overhauls aircraft. They have subsidiaries in many Asian countries. The stocks yield around 4%. They aren't supercheap, and the Asian markets generally aren't cheap enough for me. But longer term, if you want to park money in Asia, both companies will do well.




Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

China Water Problem & Agriculture



We've been discussing China's water problem. Pollution, too, has become so horrible that people are leaving China with their children. Sometimes, entire cities break down. You hardly have a clear day in Hong Kong any more, or in Shanghai. 

Agriculture is in disarray because the water table is falling, and agricultural commodities prices have corrected significantly, despite all the money-printing around the world.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Those who own paper assets are doomed - Junior Gold Miners looking good as investment




Those who own paper assets are doomed

I recommend the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF [GDXJ], although I don't own it. I own physical gold because the old system will implode.


Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Marc Faber likes Bonds and Bill Gross


Ten-year and 30-year yields eventually will be much higher. But I bought some 10-year Treasuries when the yield rose to 3%, because in the near term, yields could retreat to 2.5% or 2.2% or even 2%. 

The economic recovery is in its fifth year. On March 6, the bull market in stocks will be five years old. That's long, by historical standards. Sometime this year, the stock market could see a big tumble, as in 1987. Then the long bond will rally and reward Bill Gross.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Faber foresees a 40 percent Stock Market Correction

I think stocks are, by and large, fully priced. I think the experience with quantitative easing is a complete failure. It has lifted asset prices and created asset inflation, but it hasn't lifted the standard of living of most people in the U.S. nor worldwide.

I think the market is way overdue for a 20 to 30 percent correction. But that is "nothing that worries me. I'm hoping for the market to drop 40 percent so stocks will again become—from a value point of view—attractive.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Crony Capitalism and Corruptions

"The larger the government becomes, the less economic growth you have and the more crony capitalism and corruptions you have, because big corporations, and especially the money printers, they're the most powerful people in the world."

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Buy selected Indian stocks

In dollar terms, the Indian market is still down about 40% from the peak, because the currency has weakened. In the 1970s, stock market indexes performed poorly and stock-picking came to the fore. Asia could be like that now. It is a huge region, and you have to invest by company. Some Indian companies will do well, and others poorly. Some people made 40% on their investments in China last year, but the benchmark index did poorly.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Fed should write useful papers, not useless stuff


All these professors and academics at the Fed, write papers that nobody reads, and nobody is interested in. 

Why would they once not write about, how to structure an economic system that lifts [atleast] the standard of living of most people..... you cant lift everybody.



 Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Marc Faber on the Barrons Roundtable 2014


Via Barron's,

Faber: This morning, I said most people don't benefit from rising stock prices. This handsome young man on my left said I was incorrect. [Gabelli starts preening.] Yet, here are some statistics from Gallup's annual economy and personal-finance survey on the percentage of U.S. adults invested in the market. The survey, whose results were published in May, asks whether respondents personally or jointly with a spouse have any money invested in the market, either in individual stock accounts, stock mutual funds, self-directed 401(k) retirement accounts, or individual retirement accounts. Only 52% responded positively.

Gabelli: They didn't ask about company-sponsored 401(k)s, so it is a faulty question.

Faber: An analysis of Federal Reserve data suggests that half the U.S. population has seen a 40% decrease in wealth since 2007.

In Reminiscences of a Stock Operator [a fictionalized account of the trader Jesse Livermore that has become a Wall Street classic], Livermore said, "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight." Here's another thought from John Hussmann of the Hussmann Funds: "The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak. There's no calling the top, and most of the signals that have been most historically useful for that purpose have been blaring red since late 2011."

I am negative about U.S. stocks, and the Russell 2000 in particular. Regarding Abby's energy recommendation, this is one of the few sectors with insider buying. In other sectors,statistics show that company insiders are selling their shares like crazy, and companies are buying like crazy.

Zulauf: These are the same people.

Faber: Precisely. Looking at 10-year annualized returns for U.S. stocks, the Value Line arithmetic index has risen 11% a year. The Standard & Poor's 600 and the Nasdaq 100 have each risen 9.4% a year. In other words, the market hasn't done badly. Sentiment figures are extremely bullish, and valuations are on the high side.

But there are a lot of questions about earnings, both because of stock buybacks and unfunded pension liabilities. How can companies have rising earnings, yet not provision sufficiently for their pension funds?

Good question. Where are you leading us with your musings?

Faber: What I recommend to clients and what I do with my own portfolio aren't always the same. That said, my first recommendation is to short the Russell 2000. You can use the iShares Russell 2000 exchange-traded fund [IWM]. Small stocks have outperformed large stocks significantly in the past few years.

Next, I would buy 10-year Treasury notes, because I don't believe in this magnificent U.S. economic recovery. The U.S. is going to turn down, and bond yields are going to fall. Abby just gave me a good idea. She is long the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF, so I will go short. 

... 

What are you doing with your own money?

Faber: I have a lot of cash, and I bought Treasury bonds.

...

Faber: I have no faith in paper money, period. Next, insider buying is also high in gold shares. Gold has massively underperformed relative to the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. Maybe the price will go down some from here, but individual investors and my fellow panelists and Barron's editors ought to own some gold. About 20% of my net worth is in gold. I don't even value it in my portfolio. What goes down, I don't value.

...

Which stocks are you recommending?

Faber: I recommend the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF [GDXJ], although I don't own it. I own physical gold because the old system will implode. Those who own paper assets are doomed.

Zulauf: Can you put the time frame on the implosion?

Faber: Let's enjoy dinner tonight. Maybe it will happen tomorrow.

...

There is a colossal bubble in assets. When central banks print money, all assets go up. When they pull back, we could see deflation in asset prices but a pickup in consumer prices and the cost of living. Still, you have to own some assets. Hutchison Port Holdings Trust yields about 7%. It owns several ports in Hong Kong and China, which isn't a good business right now. When the economy slows, the dividend might be cut to 5% or so. Many Singapore real-estate investment trusts have corrected meaningfully, and now yield 5% to 6%. They aren't terrific investments because property prices could fall. But if you have a negative view of the world, and you think trade will contract, property prices will fall, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury will drop, a REIT like Hutchison is a relatively attractive investment.

...

Faber: The outlook for property in Asia isn't bad because a lot of Europeans realize they will need to leave Europe for tax reasons. They can live in Singapore and be taxed at a much lower rate. Even if China grows by only 3% or 4%, it is better than Europe. People are moving up the economic ladder in Asia and into the middle class.

Are you bullish on India?

Faber: I am on the board of the oldest India fund [the India Capital fund]. The macroeconomic outlook for India isn't good, but an election is coming, and the market always rallies into elections. The leading candidate is pro-business. He is speaking before huge crowds.

In dollar terms, the Indian market is still down about 40% from the peak, because the currency has weakened. In the 1970s, stock market indexes performed poorly and stock-picking came to the fore. Asia could be like that now. It is a huge region, and you have to invest by company. Some Indian companies will do well, and others poorly. Some people made 40% on their investments in China last year, but the benchmark index did poorly.

I like Vietnam. The economy has had its troubles, and the market has seen a big decline. I want you to visualize Vietnam. [Stands up, walks to a nearby wall, and begins to draw a map of Vietnam with his hands.] Here's Saigon, or Ho Chi Minh City, the border with China, and the Mekong River. And here in the middle, on the coast, is Da Nang.

...

Faber: I recommend shorting the Turkish lira. I had an experience in Turkey that led me to believe that some families are above the law. When I see that in an emerging economy, it makes me careful about investing.




 Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Faber Not positive on US Stocks

I am negative about U.S. stocks, and the Russell 2000 in particular. An analysis of Federal Reserve data suggests that half the U.S. population has seen a 40% decrease in wealth since 2007. In Reminiscences of a Stock Operator [a fictionalized account of the trader Jesse Livermore that has become a Wall Street classic], Livermore said, "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight." Here's another thought from John Hussmann of the Hussmann Funds: "The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak. There's no calling the top, and most of the signals that have been most historically useful for that purpose have been blaring red since late 2011."

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Buy 10 Year treasury and short Rusell 2000

What I recommend to clients and what I do with my own portfolio aren't always the same. That said, my first recommendation is to short the Russell 2000. You can use the iShares Russell 2000 exchange-traded fund [IWM]. Small stocks have outperformed large stocks significantly in the past few years.

Next, I would buy 10-year Treasury notes, because I don't believe in this magnificent U.S. economic recovery. The U.S. is going to turn down, and bond yields are going to fall.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

US Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit

I bought Treasury bonds and I have a lot of cash. It is mostly in U.S. dollars. I also have Singapore dollars, and Malaysian ringgit. f

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

The Emerging Markets Aren't incredibly cheap, except for Vietnam and Iraq

The market hasn't had a correction of more than 11% since October 2011. Enthusiasm about the U.S. market reminds me of the talk I heard nine months ago in Indonesia and Thailand. Subsequently, those markets fell 35%. While it is too late to buy the U.S., it is too early to buy the emerging markets. They aren't incredibly cheap, except for Vietnam and Iraq, and capital could still flow out.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

The problem with Mr. Obama

The problem with Mr. Obama is that you get more regulation and it's a disincentive for businessmen to hire people. You probably also get higher taxes, so in terms of the economy, he is very negative in my view. I think Mr. Obama is a disaster for business and a disaster for the United States. Not that Mr. Romney would be much better, but the Republicans understand the problem of excessive debt better than Mr. Obama, who basically doesn't care about piling up debt.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Marc Faber on Bill Gates and Poverty

Poverty in the world is one of the economic and social issues that have preoccupied me the most. How do we reduce or even eliminate poverty? I do not have the answers. Bill Gates in a recent letter to Wall Street Journal, which was based on his Foundation 2013 annual report, tries to find some solutions. I commend him for that even though I have serious reservations about “aid” as proposed by him. Still, the Gates Annual Report is well-worth a read (http://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/en).

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

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