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Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Japanese stocks long term buy

I figured the Japanese stock market would go ballistic as soon as the government weakened the yen, and that's what happened. Since the Oct. 15 low, the market is up more than 70% in yen terms and 35% in dollars—before the recent correction, that is. I bought brokers such as Nomura, which has more than doubled in price. The Japanese market is correcting now, and the yen might rebound somewhat. But whereas the U.S. is near a long-term top, Japanese stocks made a generational low in 2012 and won't go below that.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Vietnam exports strong and people hardworking

There are a lot of bad loans in the banking system, and the stock market has fallen 70% from the highs. But exports are strong, and the people are hard-working. There is a 35-kilometer stretch of beach between Danang and Hoi An that will be a huge resort area in the future. It is only an hour and 10 minutes by plane from Hong Kong, and two hours from Singapore. A Park Hyatt resort in the area has been selling villas and condos, and almost all have been bought by Vietnamese. I visited during a holiday, and 90% of the people on the beach were Vietnamese. One man even brought his Lamborghini. You can find companies in Vietnam with yields of 5% to 7%. I like Military Commercial Bank, and I'm overweight Vietnam Dairy Products. It is a dominant force in the diary-foods industry and has been growing by about 20% a year for the past 10 years. It could keep growing by 10% to 15% per annum, and the valuation is low. Sooner or later, it will be acquired.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Gloom Boom Doom - Market commentary report July 2013

American economists’ high esteem of consumption as the motor of economic growth has a long tradition dating back to the early 20th century. The continuous drive to boost consumption has led to Affluenza, an All-Consuming Epidemic, which is accompanied by an unprecedented array of escalating imbalances: ever-declining personal savings; a large fiscal and current account deficit; exploding government and consumer debts; and, a protracted shortfall in business fixed investment, employment and available real incomes. The current mantra of “selling” emerging markets and “buying” the US is likely to disappoint even if the US stock market continues to outperform. After all, the out performance may arise from US equities declining less than emerging stock markets. In this context, I should like to point out that the late May/June sell-off has been extremely benign by historical standards and that far more downside volatility is likely to occur in the months ahead. I wish my readers a pleasant summer and to remember the words of Roy D. Chapin: "Be ready when opportunity comes...Luck is the time when preparation and opportunity meet."

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Marc Faber: China will not end well

There has been a huge credit bubble in China, and it isn't going to end well. Its economy officially grew 7.7% in the first quarter. In reality, it is growing 4% a year, at best. Figures on Chinese exports to Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore don't agree with the import figures of those countries. In each case, reported exports are much larger than reported imports. Singapore publishes relatively honest economic statistics. Its gross domestic product has hardly grown in the past six months. Inflation is about 4% a year. Here in Thailand, growth has slowed despite massive fiscal stimulus. Trade and current-account surpluses have been shrinking in Malaysia, Indonesia, and other countries. Again, the economy of the rich is booming. There has been huge wealth accumulation in Asia in recent years. But the middle class has experienced diminishing purchasing power. Throughout history, growing wealth inequality has been corrected either peacefully, through taxation and wealth redistribution, or by revolution, as in Russia. I am not sure we will have a revolution in the Western world, but I can see European voters turning against the arrogance of the bureaucracy. There have been so many scandals involving French politicians with Swiss bank accounts, and so forth.

Contrarian Investor Dr.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

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